When to make what defensive call

I am a huge, huge math and statistics guy. I think what you call CAN BE dictated by the tendencies that a particular team you are facing shows. I have found at the high school level, looking at statistics can really tip the hand of the opposing teams offense. If I get a team that is a 70% tendency to do one particular thing on first down, or run one particular play, or to one particular side, I am going to set my defensive front to match what I think the play is going to be.

Oneback and coach Kelly are also correct. MOST high school teams I have found dont differentiate what they do on 2nd and medium vs. 3rd and medium, so I try to focus primarily on what they do on first a 10 and 3rd and short. Dont get me wrong, we examine all down and distance, but tendencies of teams in our area dont change much between the medium distance downs. If they do, we will try to match scheme or blitz to those situations.

Now dont get me wrong, they are "tendencies" not truths. Your kids still have to execute and react to what they see, not to what they think is going to happen. As the saying goes, "If you make 'em think, they're gonna stink." But, you can set your front or call your blitz based on what YOU think the offense is going to do, once you examine the statistics. Once you get a feel for things and what teams are trying to do to you, like Coach Kelly said, you'll fee more comfortable calling something to try to stop it.

My blutz stuff is 9 times out of 10 based on statistics as well, but thats another conversation.